Why 2024 Sucks for Junior Dev Applicants
Why is 2024 so tough for junior dev applicants?
For the past year or so I've been giving advice to coding boot camp grads on how to get hired. Most were already halfway there: they had a working web app and a solid resume. All I had to do was get them to send out more applications and boost their confidence.
For 2024 though there's just one little problem: there are no doors.
I know the market is bad. My last employer shut down over 90 previously open positions at the start of last year and reopened only 10 this year with zero junior dev positions. Many of my friends that started as juniors job-hopped this year, only to find that their previous companies never filled their spots.
Shane, a 2024 boot camp grad with better performance and a stronger portfolio than when I started in 2021, is still looking for a junior frontend position after three whole months. At one point he was even gaslit into considering a position barely above Taiwan's minimum wage because "no other companies are hiring juniors."
The Great Maybe: Post-Pandemic Hiring
When Covid was at its peak, companies rolled out work-from-home policies. As the dust settled, many discovered benefits like heightened morale, lower turnover, and improved productivity. Recruiters began looking beyond local talent pools and prioritizing experienced professionals to mitigate remote on-boarding costs.
Despite the wider talent pool, companies are now casting wider nets with larger mesh to prioritize cost-effective developers with experience, leaving out entry-level candidates.
Double-Edged Sword: The Rise of LLMs
While we're generally optimistic that LLMs aren't replacing developers soon, it's hard to say the same for devs that have only recently acquired the skill of programming and have little understanding in data structures and system design.
I wouldn't fully entrust ChatGPT to write business logic. I'd need to review it meticulously and let someone else review it before it hits the codebase. But couldn't the same be said about junior devs?
Of course with adequate nurture, junior devs may flourish into outstanding tech leads. But from the corporate perspective, there's nothing stopping those same devs from becoming leads somewhere else, which makes companies hesitant to hire for "potential."
It's not just tech either. Attorneys are becoming less dependent on associates for legal research, sales execs no longer look to assistants to draft cold emails, and junior graphic designers aren't tasked to come up with concepts.
I firmly believe the LLM-induced hiring freeze is only transitory. LLMs are just tools. They'll always be more effective in the hands of experts. And expertise starts out as a struggle in an entry-level position.
Flooded Market: The Price of Over-Hiring
For a long time, tech held a reputation of being accessible only to the intellectual elite. As software became ubiquitous, the world saw a shortage in programmers and lowered the barrier of entry. Rather than four years on a CS degree, you could pick up the bare minimum in six months at a coding boot camp.
For years the boom seemed unstoppable. Eventually, economic downturns and shifts in consumer behavior caught up. In 2023, business analysts probably discovered The Mythical Man-Month and many programmers were teleported back into the job market.
This year, things are looking up with a twist: many companies are now seeking junior-level developers with at least two years of experience. I've always regarded these job postings as memes, but seeing them on LinkedIn rather than r/ProgrammerHumor really killed the joke.
Keep Moving Forward
It's certainly a depressing year to be a tech rookie. I honestly don't know if I would make it this year rather than three years ago. But whoever's reading this and struggling: it's not your fault. I'm sure you did your best, but the circumstances just weren't in your favor.
Years ago, I aspired to become a marketing specialist or business analyst. I took business classes, worked overseas, and took a sales job to expand my network. Then Covid happened and job postings halved. I took the leap into tech via free Android development classes offered by The Taiwan Ministry of Labor, and the rest is history.
Career paths are seldom linear. It usually narrows down to three options:
- Wait it out: Fill your time with things you can bring up in interviews when asked about employment gaps.
- Get aggressive: Reach out, follow up, expand your search area, make connections. The more lottery tickets, the higher your chances.
- Explore other possibilities: Time and money spent learning is always an investment, not a sunk cost.
“Around here, however, we don't look backwards for very long. We keep moving forward, opening up new doors and doing new things, because we're curious… and curiosity keeps leading us down new paths.” (Walt Disney)
Godspeed.